Russia caught by surprise

It is too early to know whether the mass expulsion of more than 100 Russian officials by the United States and its allies will mark a new era in East-West relations. One thing, however, is clear: the scale of the response has taken Moscow by surprise. Kremlin thinking about the US and its allies has for a decade been guided by the sense that the West is paralysed by indecision. Behind their obvious advantages in wealth and military power, western countries are playing a weak hand in the game of nations, for various different reasons. For the Americans it is the failure of its wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq, experiences which have opened the way for Russia to seize the role of primary external power in Syria. As for Britain, the old imperial lion’s main concern has been ensuring the flow of Russian money to prop up London’s financial sector and property market.

This was blindingly clear after the murder in 2006 of the former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned with polonium in a London hotel. Despite the killers leaving a radioactive trail all the way back to Moscow, the British government delayed a full investigation into the murder for nearly a decade to avoid upsetting the Kremlin. It concluded that the murder was the work of Russian intelligence and probably approved by Vladimir Putin.

So when Sergei Skripal, a Russian double agent released from jail under a 2010 spy swap, and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with a nerve agent in the quiet English city of Salisbury, a similarly limp response was expected. Even more so as Britain looks vulnerable, having cut its defence capacity while isolating itself by withdrawing from the European Union.

Instead, Prime Minister Theresa May expelled 23 alleged Russian spy-diplomats from London and, to almost universal surprise, America and European allies followed suit. The British government has not issued any evidence to prove Russia’s guilt, saying only that there is no other reasonable explanation. This leap of faith by western allies is simply explained: every western intelligence service is exasperated by years of Russian cyber-attacks, lies and manipulation of social media, which the US ambassador to Moscow, John Huntsman, has called “a sea of disinformation”.

In the Skripal case, the false trails laid by Russian officials and media have become ever less convincing. Russia denied the existence of the nerve agent Novichok, which has been identified by Britain as the poison administered to the Skripals. When a Russian scientist spoke in an interview of working on the Novichok programme, this admission was later erased online and replaced with a statement that no such programme had ever existed. The mass expulsions will give western countries a warm glow of satisfaction that the old bonds of solidarity still exist in an unpredictable new world.

The writer is a commentator

 on global affairs

 

Russia caught by surprise

It is too early to know whether the mass expulsion of more than 100 Russian officials by the United States and its allies will mark a new era in East-West relations. One thing, however, is clear: the scale of the response has taken Moscow by surprise. Kremlin thinking about the US and its allies has for a decade been guided by the sense that the West is paralysed by indecision. Behind their obvious advantages in wealth and military power, western countries are playing a weak hand in the game of nations, for various different reasons. For the Americans it is the failure of its wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq, experiences which have opened the way for Russia to seize the role of primary external power in Syria. As for Britain, the old imperial lions main concern has been ensuring the flow of Russian money to prop up Londons financial sector and property market. This was blindingly clear after the murder in 2006 of the former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned with polonium in a London hotel. Despite the killers leaving a radioactive trail all the way back to Moscow, the British government delayed a full investigation into the murder for nearly a decade to avoid upsetting the Kremlin. It concluded that the murder was the work of Russian intelligence and probably approved by Vladimir Putin. So when Sergei Skripal, a Russian double agent released from jail under a 2010 spy swap, and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with a nerve agent in the quiet English city of Salisbury, a similarly limp response was expected. Even more so as Britain looks vulnerable, having cut its defence capacity while isolating itself by withdrawing from the European Union. Instead, Prime Minister Theresa May expelled 23 alleged Russian spy-diplomats from London and, to almost universal surprise, America and European allies followed suit. The British government has not issued any evidence to prove Russias guilt, saying only that there is no other reasonable explanation. This leap of faith by western allies is simply explained: every western intelligence service is exasperated by years of Russian cyber-attacks, lies and manipulation of social media, which the US ambassador to Moscow, John Huntsman, has called a sea of disinformation. In the Skripal case, the false trails laid by Russian officials and media have become ever less convincing. Russia denied the existence of the nerve agent Novichok, which has been identified by Britain as the poison administered to the Skripals. When a Russian scientist spoke in an interview of working on the Novichok programme, this admission was later erased online and replaced with a statement that no such programme had ever existed. The mass expulsions will give western countries a warm glow of satisfaction that the old bonds of solidarity still exist in an unpredictable new world. The writer is a commentator on global affairs